For all major Rugby events (Guinness Premiership, Six Nations, World Cup etc) a prediction is made on how individual teams will perform. Points are awarded to the teams who end the event in the top positions. For example, in the Six Nations Championship, we might award 60 points for the team who topped the final table, 40 points for the team in 2nd, 20 points for 3rd, 10 points for 4th and 0 points for the others. This gives you the opportunity to predict not only how well a team will perform, but how badly they may do as well.
During a Six Nations Championship, the bookie might predict that England are favourites to win, this would be reflected in their prediction of 36 – 39 points (based on the points system allocated above). If you believed England would be unbeatable, you might bet high at 39 for £5 per point.
Had they ended up winning the Six Nations you would have won 21 times your stake. (60 – 39) x your stake = 21 x £5 = £105
Even if they had lost one match and finished second, you still would have made 1 times your stake. (40 – 39) x your stake = 1 x £5 = £5
For this bet bookies simply predict how many points each side will win during the course of a season.
At the beginning of the Guinness Premiership season the bookie might predict that Leicester would win 70 points in the season, as a result our prediction would be 69 – 71 points. If you believed they would continue their run of winning the Championship and win more matches than ever by doing so, you would bet high at 71 for the stake of your choice, in this case £5 per point.
Had Leicester won the Championship with 82 points, you would have made 11 times your stake. (82 – 71) x your stake = 11 x £5 = £55
However, had Leicester struggled during the season and only managed to finish with 61 points, you would have lost 10 times your stake. (71 – 61) x your stake = 10 x £5 = -£50
In this market the bookie will predict how many points one team would beat the other by. This gives you the opportunity to support or oppose either team in the match.
The bookmaker could predict that England will beat France by around 8 points; as a result we will predict the supremacy to be 7 – 10 points. If you fancied England to beat France by a margin of more than 10 points you would bet high at 10 for the stake of your choice, in this case £5 per point.
If it turned out to be a tight match, with England scraping home 11-6, the supremacy (winning margin) would be 5 points. As a result you would have lost 5 times your stake. (10 – 5) x your stake = 5 x £5 = -£25
If England had romped home and won by 20 points you would have won 10 times your stake. (20 – 10) x your stake = 10 x £5 = £50
For this bet you must simply predict the total number of points that will be scored in a rugby match.
For a match between Leicester and Saracens, we might predict a relatively free scoring game with plenty of points; as a result our total points prediction might be 56 – 59.
If you expected an open game, you would bet high at 59, for the stake of your choice, in this case £5 per point.
Had you been proved correct and the game had finished 42 – 28, a total of 70 points, you would have made 11 times your stake. (70 – 59) x your stake = 11 x £5 = £55.
Had the game proved to be a dour affair with few points, eg with a final result of 18 – 12 and therefore a total of 30 points then you would have lost 29 times your stake. (59 – 30) x your stake = 29 x £5 = -£145
In this market we will predict the aggregate number of the try scorers’ shirt numbers in a match. For example, if numbers 13, 12 and 14 all score a try, the total would be 39.
We might predict that a clash between England and France would be a relatively attacking game, with plenty of tries. As a result we might predict Total Shirt Numbers as 63 – 67.
If you expected an open game with points being scored freely you would bet high at 67 for the stake of your choice, in this case, £5 per point.
If England had beaten France 48 – 19 with seven tries being scored, the shirt numbers might have added up to 83.
As a result you would have made 16 times your stake. (83 – 67) x your stake = 16 x £5 = £80
If you had gone low at 63 for the same stake, you would have lost 20 times your stake:
(83 – 63) x your stake = 20 x £5 = -£100
In this particular market we nominate four “Hotshots” from each team.
25 points are awarded for each try scored by any of the nominated players. We will quote a prediction based on how many tries we think the nominated players may score.
In a match between Scotland and England we might select Cohen, Robinson, Goode and Lewsey as our 4 English hotshots.
Our prediction for these four might be 30 – 34 (predicting that they would score at least one try between them).
If England scored 4 tries in total, with Lewsey and Robinson scoring one try apiece, Hotshots would make up at 50 (2 x 25 points).
If you had gone high at 34 for £5 per point you would have made 16 times your stake: (50 – 34) x your stake = 16 x £5 = £80
If you had gone low at 30 for the same stake, you would have lost 20 times your stake: (50 ¿ 30) x your stake = 20 x £5 = -£100
Time of First try
Make your judgement as to how little or how much time will elapse before either team scores. If you were to bet low on the first match try then ideally you would like a first minute score. However if there were no tries in the match then the make up would be 80 (as in 80 minutes). Sporting Index will offer a prediction for first match try (scored by either team) and for both individual teams.
For a Six Nations match between Scotland and Italy, we predicted the first match try (by either side) would be scored between 18 – 21 minutes. If you were convinced the match would be deadlocked for far longer than this you might bet high at 21 for £5 per minute.
If you were right and the Scots only managed to break through the Italian defence in the 27th minute then you would have won 6 times your stake: (27 – 21) x your stake = 6 x £5 = £30
If you had gone low at 18 minutes for the same stake, you would have lost 9 times your stake: (27 ¿ 18) x your stake = 9 x £5 = -£45
We predict the overall performance of a team during a match.
Points are awarded for winning, drawing, scoring tries and goal kicks. Points are deducted for missed kicks, bookings and dismissals. Sporting Index will quote a prediction depending on how they think a team is going to play, and how successful they might be. Points are awarded/deducted as follows:
Win=25pts, Draw=10pts, Try=15pts, Conversion, Penalty or Drop goal=5pts, Missed Penalty or Drop Goal=-5pts, Yellow Card/Sin Bin=-5pts, Red Card/Sending Off=-15pts.
For a Six Nations match between Wales and Italy, we might quote the Wales performance as reaching between 113 -120 points.
If you believed the gritty Italians would put up more of a fight and restrict the Welsh you might bet low on the Wales Performance at 113 for £5 per point.
The Welsh win 33 – 23 with their performance resulting in 90 points:
Win=25pts, 3 tries=3 x 15=45pts, 4 penalties=4 x 5=20pts, 3 conversions=3 x 5=15pts, 2 missed penalties=2 x -5=-10pts, 1 sin bin =-5ts. Total=90 points.
By betting low you would have won 23 times your stake: (113 – 90) x your stake = 23 x £5 = £115
If you had gone high at 120 for the same stake, you would have lost 30 times your stake: (120 – 90) x your stake = 30 x £5 = -£150